The US Government Expects Bitcoin To Hit Between $250,000 and $6 Million in Around a Decade, as per the Assumptions Embedded in the Budget Document

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Typically, it is the astronomical fiscal deficit enshrined within the annual budget document of the US that garners attention. This time around, however, President Biden's 2025 budget is attracting quite a lot of eyeballs from the crypto sphere, courtesy of a line item embedded toward the end of the voluminous financial document that illustrates the US government's projections vis-a-vis Bitcoin.

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Riot Platform's VP of Research, Pierre Rochard, recently distilled the US government's revenue projections from the regulation and taxation of digital assets into the theoretical price of Bitcoin that underpins those estimates. As per his findings, the US Office of Management and Budget expects Bitcoin to hit $250,000 by 2034 - 2035. If you wish to examine that line item yourself, head over to page 163 of this document.

Basically, Rochard divides the revenue that the US government expects to generate from digital assets in 2025 ($1.035 billion) by Bitcoin's current price of around $72,000. He then multiplies the result by the revenue of $3.65 billion that the government expects to generate in 2035, leading to an end result of $254,158 as the expected price of one Bitcoin. Critically, this analysis ignores any improvements in the government's regulatory or taxation capacity in relation to digital assets in driving up the revenue projections.

By applying the same approach to the budget's projections for digital asset mining excise tax, Rochard arrives at an estimated assumed price of around $6 million for one Bitcoin by 2033.

We noted earlier today that Bitcoin has now formed a new all-time high on the back of a confluence of benevolent tailwinds, which include soaring inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETFs, MicroStrategy's ongoing Bitcoin