Will Supply-Chain Issues Kill the Low-Cost Apple Vision Pro?

pcmag.com:

If the $3,499 price tag didn't give it away, the first-gen Vision Pro is for developers and early adopters, not the average consumer. Apple-watchers expected a second-gen version for the masses down the line, but supply chain issues may have killed the low-cost Vision Pro.

That's according to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who points to shrinking production estimates to suggest that "Apple may have canceled the low-cost Vision Pro version plan (with market consensus expecting a 2025 launch)." Without a big price drop, he says, "the anticipated significant shipment growth in Vision Pro shipments starting in 2025 may not materialize."

Production estimates for the Vision Pro have been all over the place. Two people close to Chinese manufacturer Luxshare told the Financial Times recently that Apple is only aiming for 130,000 to 150,000 headsets in the first 12 months. Kuo says "Vision Pro shipments in 2024 will be at most 400,000–600,000 units," below market estimates around 1 million.

Apple CEO Tim Cook didn't seem bothered by the supply chain issues during a recent interview with CBS Sunday Morning. The headset's launch is still on track for 2024, he said, though Cook did not specify how many units will ship or if a low-cost version is in the works.

The Vision Pro is "more complex" than an iPhone, Cook told CBS. "And so, it requires innovation in not only the development but also in the manufacturing."

"That complexity is the most likely cause of both the supply chain issues and the device's excessive price tag," Kuo says. "A low-cost option would get it into the hands of more consumers, but there's little point in doing so if Apple can't manufacture enough units to sell in the first place."

For now, Kuo predicts that a Vision Pro