Nintendo has only missed a February Direct once in the past 12 years, and there's no reason to expect them to stop now whether or not you believe the leaks

gamesradar.com:

We are once again in the season of Nintendo Direct speculation, as you might have guessed from the chaos that Switch fans have been in over the past few weeks. The most recent leaks suggest that a Direct is coming soon, but whether or not you believe the rumors, a decade's worth of history points to another February Direct.

Nintendo has aired a Direct in February every single year since the format's inception, with one notable skip: 2018, where a Direct instead aired on March 8. Clearly, Nintendo likes to showcase its wares in the later days of winter. If you don't want to put your faith in leakers, you can put your faith in the fact that Nintendo has a marketing schedule you can set a watch by.

The caveat to all this is, of course, the fact that not every February Direct has been a large-scale event. We've had a proper Direct the past three Februaries, and aside from 2018 the month has otherwise at least hosted a deep dive on a particular game, an indie showcase, or some sort of Pokemon presentation. I'd be shocked if the Direct didn't happen within the next few weeks, but I would not be surprised if those expecting big first-party Nintendo news ended up disappointed.

With that in mind, it makes a lot of sense that the most recent supposed leak - this time by a trusted social media personality who goes by Pyoro - suggests that we're getting a Partner Showcase sometime next week, where Nintendo will highlight some selection of third-party games.

The Nintendo Switch 2 has not yet been officially confirmed, but the possibility of Nintendo's next console being announced soon is the shadow that looms over all of this speculation. There's exactly one first-party upcoming Switch game with a concrete release date in the form of Princess Peach: Showtime! on March 22. Two remasters, Luigi's Mansion 2 HD and Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door, are due out in 2024, and the only other announced Nintendo game in production is the long-delayed Metroid Prime 4.

That's far too few