Grand Theft Auto VI Is Expected to Be the Biggest Entertainment Launch of All Time, but a Performance Below Expectations Could Impact the Entire Industry

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Grand Theft Auto VI is expected to be the biggest entertainment launch of all time, but the game could impact the industry as a whole if it performs below expectations.

Speaking in a new interview with Kyle Bosman, Mat Piscatella, Executive Director and Video Game Industry Advisor at Circana (NPD), commented on the sixth entry in the series by Rockstar Games that was confirmed yesterday to release in late 2025. According to the analyst and industry advisor, the game will be the biggest entertainment launch to date in terms of overall spending in its launch period. However, it will face plenty of challenges, so it is difficult to say if it will replicate GTA V's smashing success or build on top of it. The market has changed in the past few years, peaking in 2020 and 2021 in terms of overall spending and engagement, peaks that haven't been reached since. As such, the industry is playing the "share" game as opposed to the "growth" game it has played for a long time, and games are competing for a known amount of players' money and time.

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In this market, Grand Theft Auto VI has to compete not only with established franchises as Call of Duty but also with those "forever" games like Fortnite, Minecraft and Roblox, which continue to be extremely successful in terms of engagement. Another big competitor is GTA V, as it is unknown if the new entry in the series will be able to make fans of its predecessor purchase a new console to play it. If there's one game, however, that could bring back the hours of engagement lost since 2020 and 2021 is the Rockstar Games open-world title, according to Piscatella, but it is not yet known if it will be capable of bringing the gaming industry to grow again.

While a single game making or breaking the industry sounds a little excessive, a lot seems to be riding on Grand Theft Auto VI's success, as usually, one single game doing well can