Our 2024 Oscar predictions, with a day to go before Oscar nominations
2024 might be the Academy Awards’ biggest year in ages. The Oscar nominations, set for announcement on Tuesday, Jan. 23, are primed to honor highly regarded films from around the world, performances that premiered in theaters and on streaming, and a few of the biggest movies of the year — including the Barbenheimer double feature of Oppenheimerand Barbie. It’s been a slow crawl back from the hazy pandemic era where movies that kinda sorta came out in time won Best Picture, but here we are, with a set of nomations that stands to be both predictable and electrifying.
How predictable? Well, let’s take a stab at guessing the nominees on the eve of the actual Oscar nominations.
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Which movie could sneak in? The expansion of the Academy into a more global voting group has given international favorites more likelihood of breaking through into the top 10 Best Picture nominees — which is why Cannes Film Festival favorites like Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest have a strong chance of boxing out more traditional Hollywood prestige plays like The Color Purple or Air. Of these picks, I’m most dubious of Maestro having momentum, and wonder if Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse or my beloved Asteroid City could slide in as a surprise upset.
What might win? Hovering at “If anything beats Oppenheimer, I will eat a shoe” levels of confidence that Oppenheimer will win.
Greta Gerwig — Barbie
Martin Scorsese — Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan — Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos— Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer — The Zone of Interest
Who could sneak in? There is a lot of love for Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers (see the next few categories), and he feels extremely honorable in this category. Glazer might be the one to bump to make room for Payne, but then again, The Zone of Interest is full-force directorial vision… and
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