With GTA 6 not due until 2025, what will drive games in 2024?

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There were hopes and expectations that Grand Theft Auto 6 would release in 2024.

The one-two punch of the next GTA and the anticipated launch of a new Nintendo console would have bolstered the global games market in 2024, and deliver a more positive year compared to 2022's decline (at least compared to the COVID years) and 2023's marginal growth.

But, as we learned yesterday, GTA 6 will not launch on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X and S until 2025. Not that this has diminished expectations for how well Rockstar's blockbuster will perform when it finally arrives, of course.

"Grand Theft Auto 6 will likely carry the expectation of being the biggest entertainment launch of all time when it is released," Mat Piscatella, executive director and video games industry analyst at Circana (formerly NPD), tells GamesIndustry.biz. "The potential is certainly there, the only question is how high the ceiling is."

Omdia's senior principal analyst George Jijiashvili agrees, adding: "It’s clear that Rockstar Games is poised to meet the sky-high expectations set for this eagerly awaited sequel… With such anticipation and Rockstar's track record, we expect GTA 6 to perform exceptionally well upon release in 2025, likely becoming one of the highest-selling games of the decade."

"Even in the best-case scenario, they won’t be able to meaningfully boost the entire market [in the same way as Grand Theft Auto 6]"

Jijiashvili emphasises that the wait until 2025 will not have a negative impact on GTA 6's sales. If anything, he expects the opposite.

"Thanks to the mid-gen console launches in 2024, and more current-gen consoles in the hands of gamers overall, Omdia