Wagner vs. Putin: As Russia Descends Into Civil War, the World Braces for an Oil Price Shock

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The Russian state is facing its most severe internal challenge in well over two decades, spurred by the supposed grievances of the Wagner Group vis-à-vis Putin’s Ukraine offensive, with potent ramifications for the ongoing transition to a multipolar world order as well as the oil markets and the attendant resurging risks of the inflation conflagration.

The seeds of this crisis have been visible for months, with Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group – the largest private army in Russia and an instrumental force in the country’s war against Ukraine – repeatedly expressing frustration with Russia’s approach in Ukraine. Prigozhin has accused the Russian defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, as well as the country’s top general, Valery Gerasimov, of gross incompetence in the Ukraine offensive while deliberately withholding any direct blame on Putin.

However, things presumably reached a boiling point on Friday when Prigozhin said in a video clip that was released on Telegram:

“The defense ministry is trying to deceive society and the president and tell us a story about how there was crazy aggression from Ukraine and that they were planning to attack us with the whole of NATO.”

He said that the war was started for “different reasons,” going on to note:

“The war was needed … so that Shoigu could become a marshal, … so that he could get a second ‘Hero’ [of Russia] medal. The war wasn’t needed to demilitarise or denazify Ukraine.”

As has been the case with previous allegations from Prigozhin, Moscow was quick to reject such assertions. Nonetheless, Prigozhin announced a “march of justice,”