After over a year of lobbying and debating, the UK Competition and Markets Authority has blocked Microsoft's attempt to acquire Activision Blizzard, saying that the deal would give Microsoft too strong a position in the cloud gaming market «just as it begins to grow rapidly.» Microsoft isn't giving up, but this isn't just an everyday regulatory hurdle: The deal «very well may be» dead, according to Bloomberg(opens in new tab) senior antitrust litigation analyst Jennifer Rie.
Rie speculates that overturning the CMA's decision could take «years» and that the deal isn't likely to hold together for that long. The acquisition has already been 15 months in the making, and even if not by multiple years as Rie predicts, the purchase agreement's July deadline will likely need to be extended. Ampere analyst Piers Harding-Rolls said on Twitter(opens in new tab) that he doesn't expect the CMA appeal to conclude within the year.
Speaking to the BBC(opens in new tab), Harding-Rolls also said that there's «a chance» Microsoft can win the appeal, but that the CMA typically comes out on top of these things. «At the moment, the CMA's decision is pretty disappointing for Microsoft and their route toward the acquisition,» he said.
Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter (a figure who's mildly notorious in gaming forums for his adventurous speculations) is the most optimistic of the three. Speaking to GameSpot(opens in new tab), Pachter said that Microsoft can win the appeal by offering the CMA one of two remedies for its cloud gaming concerns: «carve out Game Pass in the UK and keep all Activision Blizzard content off of the service» or «commit that they will keep the price of Game Pass at the current price plus no more than the rate of
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