The Apple Vision Pro, And Future Headsets Need To Grow Business By 20x Just To Reach The Same Level As The iPad Category

wccftech.com:

Growing a category with the Apple Vision Pro has been more challenging than what the company would have anticipated, as the $3,499 price tag will only encourage a minute number of consumers to turn a head-mounted computer into their daily driver. Unfortunately, one report states that selling a more affordable AR headset might not be sufficient to help grow this division.

The Apple Vision Pro successor was planned before the first model was announced at WWDC 2023, but Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman states that the launch of future models might not make it possible for this category to bring in the same business as an iPad. Gurman reports in his Power On newsletter that even with an average sales price of $3,700, which includes prescription lenses and accessories, Apple only stands to generate around $1.5 billion in annual revenue with the limited units it is going to sell.

To just reach the current stage of Apple’s Mac business, the company has to increase the growth of its AR headset by 20 times to about eight million yearly shipment units, and that, right there, is a tall ask. Even with a more affordable Apple Vision Pro model, consumers stand to pick something they believe will give them more utility out of their purchase: a Mac, iPad, or iPhone.

“If Apple hits the low-end of that range at an average sales price of $3,700 — incorporating optional prescription lenses and extras — that’s about $1.5 billion in revenue in year one. To become an iPad-sized business, the category would have to grow by 20 times to about 8 million units annually.

Given the device’s drawbacks and price, that will be all but impossible in the foreseeable future. To be sure, plans for a cheaper model, subsequent versions with new features like better