One theory states that Gellert Grindelwald (Johnny Depp/Mads Mikkelsen) didn't lie about Credence's (Ezra Miller) identity in Fantastic Beasts 2 — he genuinely believes he is Aurelius Dumbledore. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore promises to explore Albus Dumbledore's (Jude Law) past as well as Credence's identity and his relationship to the great wizard after the previous movie left many wondering just how much of what Grindelwald said is true. While Grindelwald is known for manipulating people into fighting his battle (having done just that to Credence in the first Fantastic Beasts movie), when it comes to Credence's identity, Grindelwald is following the extensive research he's done over the course of Fantastic Beasts 2.
Grindelwald was a natural-born Seer and had a vision of an Obscurial killing the man he feared the most — Albus Dumbledore. This is why he traveled to New York (assuming the identity of Colin Farrell's Percival Graves), looking for the reported Obscurial wreaking havoc in the city. Grindelwald didn’t think Credence could be the Obscurial (in fact, he was surprised and impressed when it was revealed), as he was initially looking for a child under 10 years old, as no witch or wizard possessed by an Obscurus makes it past the age of 10. However, there was one exception: Ariana Dumbledore.
Related: Fantastic Beasts Already Spoiled Credence's Ending (By Making Him Snape)
When Grindelwald discovered Credence was in fact the Obscurial, he connected the case to Ariana's and he started suspecting that Credence was also a Dumbledore (as Dumbledores are very powerful wizards and can arguably survive an Obscurus for longer). The involvement of Dumbledore and his protégé Newt Scamander (Eddie Redmayne)
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