Datamining Fyr'alath Legendary Drop Rates - Bad Luck Protection Values Revealed

wowhead.com:

Unexplained RNG and bad luck protection have been a source of frustration for players chasing legendary weapons in Dragonflight, though thanks to a surprise hotfix, we've datamined what appears to be the actual drop rate for Fyr'alath the Dreamrender!

Thanks to Dorovon for helping parse the data and generating graphs for the drop rates.

Disclaimers

Please read the following disclaimers.

1. This data is not labeled. There's no «Fyr'alath Legendary Drop Rate» tag, but based on multiple factors, we assume that this is related to the Fyr'alath Bad Luck Protection (BLP). This could not be related, but we do think it is.
2. While we think we know what each set of data is for, we don't know how the graphs interact with each other (i.e. How exactly does the BLP from Lesser and Greater Embers combine?)
3. We don't know if there's an additional base drop percentage and what it is, if it exists.
4. Curve data is a set of points and we are assuming a linear interpolation, but we don't know for sure.

While some of this is likely still inaccurate due to some unknown connections, there are a couple of main takeaways that will be useful to know for players and players can look forward to seeing their legendary watch end soon (TM).

Data Gathering and Yesterday's Hotfix

At ~9:40 PST two nights ago. Blizzard announced that Bad Luck Protection on the Legendary was buffed. There were only two sets of hotfixes yesterday, one was a SpellScript which can't be datamined but the other changed some Curves. Curves are nothing special usually, but given that context, it was possible that these specific curves actually contained drop rate information for Fyr'alath the Dreamrender.

These are the reasons that we believe these are related to BLP:

1. The timing of the hotfix was shortly before the announcement.
2. 10 out of 12 hotfixed plots were encrypted with the same encryption key that encrypted Fyr'alath