ARK Invest’s $24 Trillion Global Revenue Opportunity: Deutsche Bank Thinks Tesla Will Earn $10 Billion Annually From Its Optimus Robots By 2035
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Deutsche Bank has published a new coverage initiation report on Tesla today, with some industry players going so far as to term it "one of the most naive nonsense research reports" to grace the buy-side research sphere. Yet, despite employing exaggerated multiples to value Tesla's assorted revenue streams, the report does a fairly good job of contextualizing the sheer market opportunity that the EV giant can grab should it play its cards just right.
Before discussing Deutsche Bank's new report on Tesla, do note that Cathie Wood's ARK Invest has also published a fresh blog today that expounds on the global revenue opportunity for humanoid robots. ARK's base case sees an eventual robotics-driven productivity uplift of between 50 percent and 200 percent. While some of ARK's projections appear extremely rosy, the blog post does constitute a fairly good primer on the disruptive capabilities of this emerging technology.
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Coming back, Deutsche Bank believes that Tesla's automotive unit will be earning annual revenues of ~$141 billion by 2030, based on a delivery estimate of around 4 million units and an ASP of $35,000. However, the analyst then uses Apple's multiples to value the segment, which is not exactly an apple-to-apple comparison, especially given the fact that the iPhone manufacturer's margins are orders of magnitude higher than those of Tesla.
On the robotaxi front, the banking behemoth sees Tesla employing a fleet of around 1 million vehicles by 2035, resulting in annual revenues of around $15 billion.
Deutsche Bank sees Tesla's energy storage business bringing in $41 billion in annual sales by 2030, based on battery deployment estimates of 155 GWh.
Finally, the banking giant sees Tesla's bespoke humanoid robot
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