Tier Sets Drop Chance from the Great Vault on 9.2 PTR - Observations and Remaining Questions
Tier Sets have started to drop from the Great Vault on the 9.2 PTR and we've opened 200 Great Vaults to estimate the Drop Chance of tier pieces showing up in the Great Vault!
Disclaimers and Data Collection MethodAs Blizzard did not reveal the exact drop chance of Tier in their Tier Set FAQ earlier today, we took to the PTR to estimate what the drop chance of Tier will be in Patch 9.2. However, Blizzard is the only one that knows the exact drop chance, and this is only an estimation. Data was collected using a Brewmaster Monk using exactly 1 box in the Mythic+ row. If the drop chance is different between each form of content, or with additional boxes amongst the same row then this data will not support that. In addition, as this was tested on the PTR, this may change going forwards.
Tier Sets Drop Chance in Great Vault EstimatedOpening the Great Vault 200 times on the 9.2 PTR, we received 12 pieces of Tier Gear which works out to be an estimated 6% Drop Rate for this slot. Using the sample size and observed drop chance, it's likely that the drop rate is somewhere between 3% to 10%. We received:
188 Non-Tier Pieces 2 Tier Helms (1 with Socket) 2 Tier Shoulders 3 Tier Chests (1 with Indestructible) 3 Tier Gloves 2 Tier Pants Drop Chance Analysis and HypothesisFrom this data, we'll be proceeding with an estimated 6% drop chance from the Great Vault. Here are some thoughts based on the data:
Conclusion 1: Any Piece PossibleFrom the above loot that we received, it appears that the Great Vault can presumably drop Tier Pieces from any boss in Sepulcher of the First Ones, even bosses you haven't killed (was done on a character which did 0 raid testing). This means that the Great Vault could give you a Tier Chest or
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