GTA 6 and the PlayStation 4 problem

gamesindustry.biz:

The phrase that gets thrown around the games industry a lot right now is 'Survive until 2025'.

The hope, or even the expectation, is that next year will see the games business bounce back after two years of faltering sales and mass redundancies.

There are a few reasons for this expectation. First, there's the belief that we'll see continued economic recovery and falling inflation rates, which should result in increased consumer spending and investment. Second, the launch of a new Nintendo console should spark increased interest and sales of new games.

And third… Grand Theft Auto 6.

Make no mistake, the next GTA will be significant milestone for video games. It should, all going well, prove to be the biggest entertainment launch of all time. It'll shine a spotlight on the industry (for good or bad), it'll drive sales at retail, boost traffic for the games media and help shift hardware, too.

It won’t benefit everyone, of course. For games publishers and developers who aren't called Rockstar, GTA 6 isn't exactly going to help them. In fact, any game that dares to release within the six-week blast radius of Grand Theft Auto does so at its own risk. Meanwhile, live service games should be braced for a sharp drop in average playtime.

Yet one thing that some in the industry are hoping for with GTA 6 is that it will help overcome 'the PS4 problem.'

We've spoken a lot about the games console business being in decline, pointing to the slightly slower pace of console sales this generation compared with the previous one. Yet things are rosier, especially for PlayStation, when we start considering other metrics.

"[We expect] Rockstar to continue operating GTA Online for the foreseeable future, but the user base [will be] split following the launch of GTA 6. Rockstar has never faced this sort of transitional challenge"

For instance, revenue is significantly up for PS5 compared with PS4. But what's more, in terms of overall engaged users, the numbers are looking healthy… it's just that so