Bitcoin’s Rally Stalls Just Shy of a Trading Signal Last Seen Before the Token’s Record Run
Bitcoin's 2023 rally is stalling after coming tantalizingly close to forming a trading signal last seen when the token was setting records.
The coin's near 4% slide in the seven days through Sunday was the largest weekly drop since November, paring its year-to-date gain to 39%.
Bitcoin remains on the cusp of a golden cross, where the 50-day average price tops the 200-day. This pattern occurred before bull runs in 2020 and 2021.
“Most instances of a golden cross have resulted in favorable returns for Bitcoin, and many have occurred at critical long-term inflection points,” Sean Farrell, Fundstrat Global Advisors' digital-asset strategy head, wrote in a note.
Over the past five years, Bitcoin rose an average 22% in the 60 days after a golden cross, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. But the glaring difference between the easy-money era of 2020 and 2021, when some crosses preceded rallies to all-time highs, and the current backdrop is that central banks are hiking interest rates to fight inflation.
A blowout US jobs report Friday dented expectations that such policy tightening will soon end and perhaps reverse this year, dovish bets that had powered a January revival across global markets. That rally swept up large and small tokens alike — ranging from Bitcoin and Ether to Axie Infinity and Decentraland.
The payrolls report pushed up Treasury yields, which have been a key factor in influencing demand for riskier investments, according to John Toro, head of trading at digital-asset exchange Independent Reserve.
“If it remains true that the bond market continues to be leading for risk assets, the cryptocurrency market may take a breather until risk assets have appropriately repriced for higher yields,” he said.
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