We interrupt our regular schedule of fish puns and naughty jokes about holes to warn you that a huge chunk of celestial debris has a 2.3% chance of impacting Earth in December 2032 and wiping out the city of Bradford. I name Bradford because it’s the first city that occurs to me and also, because several of my ancient enemies live there, but the asteroid could hit anywhere. Where do you live? Maybe wear a hard hat when you go Xmas shopping in 2032. Asteroid 2024 YR4 loiters somewhere along our planet’s orbital trajectory, like a rake in the grass.
If this were the 1980s we’d seek comfort in the pages of the Hitchhiker’s Guide To The Galaxy, which has the words “DON’T PANIC” in large, friendly letters on the cover. But it’s the twenty-twenties and nobody reads Douglas Adams anymore, so instead I’m playing Neal.fun’s free tool Asteroid Launcher, which lets you pick asteroids of different sizes and compositions like you’re choosing brands of cereal, then splat them capriciously against world map data provided by Apple Inc.
YR24 is said to be 130-300 feet across, and is made of stone. Let’s split the difference and say it’s 215 feet across, or a few short of 70 metres. According to Asteroid Launcher, if a 70 metre wide stone asteroid were to explode in the atmosphere 2.4 kilometres above my flat*, while travelling at 17 kilometres a second, the devastation would be catastrophic. The resulting 211 decibel shockwave would totally obliterate my favourite chippie down the road. My local Cafe Neros at the bottom of the hill would experience winds faster than the storms on Jupiter. My favourite curry shop in London would likely be levelled, which I guess is fine because I think they’re planning to move anyway.
It sounds unbearable, but it could be worse. My favourite London takeaway joint would fall slightly outside the blast radius, and people eating in my favourite vegan pizza place might not even glance up from their Pepper-no-nis. Curiously, if the asteroid were 30
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