Phil Spencer on what the hell is happening in the games industry

polygon.com:

“The math on [making] a game has definitely changed,” said Phil Spencer, CEO of Gaming at Microsoft.

Polygon spoke with Spencer during the annual Game Developers Conference, and though the conversation ranged from the possibility of a handheld console to the trouble with closed platforms, one theme was inescapable: What the hell is going on with the games industry? And how will video game makers and publishers — Xbox included — get out of it?

Spencer’s views point to a collision of rising budgets, diversifying business models, and the exceptional financial risk now required to meet the audience expectations of a AAA release. He specifically pointed to the astronomical budgets of big-budget games, which have created a knot of problems that has been a challenge to disentangle. And for Spencer, the path forward is to abandon assumptions about exclusivity and attract new customers who have cooled on the console experience.

But first, for context, Spencer talked about how things used to work when budgeting and greenlighting a video game. The Microsoft exec has been producing games for long enough that he can remember when the financials were relatively straightforward. A publisher could set a sales goal (say, 800,000 units), set an earnout goal (how much money they want to make), and set the price of the game (usually $59.99). From there, a video game’s publisher and/or studio could set a budget.

However, the financial calculus has changed. In 2024, most games are sold across multiple storefronts, often steeply discounted mere weeks after release or included as part of subscription services on launch day. Plus, the games themselves take many years to create with the help of hundreds, if not thousands, of team members, sometimes spread across the world. All of this adds up, and as Spencer says, it can cost “$300 million to build a video game.”

Spencer explained how this cost forces three substantial problems: one for all big-budget games, one unique to console exclusives,