Russia insists that it’s going to bring the U.S. astronaut home. The rest is just warmongering rumor. Mark Vande Hei, who’s about to break the American record for longest time in orbit, will depart the International Space Station as scheduled on aboard a Soyuz spacecraft on March 30 and land in Kazakhstan, whence NASA will fly him to U.S. soil.
Let’s assume this is true. Let’s believe Dimitry Rogozin, head of the Russian space agency Roscosmos, who now says he was only joking when he posted a video suggesting that Vande Hei would be left behind.(1) Let’s assume that Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has not recently shown the slightest respect for international law, will behave sensibly in this instance. Even if Vande Hei returns safely, the volume of space travel is growing. Sooner or later, someone will wind up stranded.
If that happens, there’s a better chance than ever that humankind can mount a successful rescue.
First things first: To refuse to help a stranded astronaut would constitute a grave violation of international law — more specifically, of the law of outer space. The 1967 Outer Space Treaty and the 1968 Rescue and Return Agreement obligate parties to treat each other’s astronauts not as foreign nationals but as “envoys of mankind.” Parties, which include the U.S. and Russia, must assist those facing emergencies and facilitate their safe return to their own countries. And if parties must help in emergencies, they certainly can’t cause the emergency in the first place, as would happen if the Soyuz refused to let Vande Hei board. Nevertheless, with regular flights to the ISS, and space tourism growing, the issue of someone being left behind in space isn’t going to disappear.
In fact, the likelihood is
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