Switch’s successor is at least two years away, research firm estimates
Nintendo’s next console is at least two years away, a senior industry analyst has forecast.
Piers Harding-Rolls of Ampere Analysis provided his predictions in a note provided to VGC, following Nintendo latest financial results on Tuesday.
Nintendo announced Switch hardware sales of 23.06 million for its 22 fiscal year, bringing lifetime sales to 107.6m. The figure brings the company closer to beating PS2’s record (155m), but it still represents a 20% decline on the previous year when Switch sales peaked at 28.83 million units.
Officially, the company has said it believes Switch is still in the middle phase of its lifecycle and that it’s seeking a sixth year of growth, aided by the new OLED model.
However, Ampere’s Harding-Rolls said he believes Switch sales will now inevitably decline until the platform holder reveals its next-generation console.
“Switch sales, setting aside the unexpectedly strong growth in 2020 due to the pandemic and Animal Crossing release, are following a traditional console lifecycle shape,” he told VGC.
“Even with the release of the OLED model, sales were expected to decline from their peak as the Switch reaches year six of the cycle in 2022 and Nintendo’s latest shipment forecast reflects this.
“Nintendo has forecast 21 million Switch shipments in the April 2022 to March 2023 fiscal period, down from 23m in FY22. Depending on if the next Zelda game releases before the end of March 2023, that could be considered to be a little conservative.”
He added: “A new Zelda will prompt some existing Switch flagship or Lite owners to upgrade to the OLED version of the console. Even with the release of Breath of the Wild 2 in 2023, Ampere is expecting Switch sales to continue declining year-on-year as it enters the
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