Mastering predictive lifetime value in the iOS 14.5+ era
Katie Madding
Monday 9th May 2022
Making accurate predictions about the lifetime value (LTV) of users -- and finding more big spenders -- in the post-IDFA era often leaves marketers feeling like they need a crystal ball.
The reality is that for apps relying on in-app purchases for revenue, iOS 14.5+ has made data-driven decisions more difficult. With deterministic data in short supply, app marketers need to find new solutions to calculate predictive LTV (or pLTV) to secure the bottom line.
In terms of actual revenue, the post-IDFA world isn't actually impacting how much users spend in-app. In fact, in-app spending actually grew nearly 20% year-on-year from 2020 to 2021.
Any good iOS strategy in 2022 starts by focusing on getting user consent
However, the limited availability of deterministic attribution for opted-out users could make it harder for app publishers to know exactly how much revenue each campaign generated. Without a clear picture of the top-performing channels for user acquisition, marketers may struggle to pinpoint exactly where their biggest spenders are coming from -- and how to find more users just like them.
Luckily, there are some excellent strategic approaches that marketing teams can take to make the most of what data is available. Any good iOS strategy in 2022 starts by focusing on getting user consent. By maximizing the number of users that opt-in you can maintain a baseline of deterministic data to work from, for modelling or forecasting purposes. And by identifying key signals to optimize for, you can make Apple's SKAdNetwork system work for you.
SKAdNetwork (SKAN) was introduced by Apple in 2018, though it saw little adoption. The philosophy behind SKAN is that it provides a type of campaign
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