What will it be like when you have your own bot, and it is as good as or better than you at many daily tasks?
The answer may come sooner than you think. Google’s new Pathway Languages Model, which is not yet open for public testing, is the latest advance in artificial intelligence. The technical explanation is that neural networks have been scaled to 540 billion parameters for “breakthrough performance.” The practical effect is that AI is now better at engaging in natural conversation, explaining novel jokes and writing code.
I expect most written communication will eventually be done by bots. I could train my bot by letting it read all my previous email and other writings. Eventually my bot would answer most of my email directly, though it could hold some aside to ask me whether they merited a personal response.
This sounds convenient, and in many ways it will be. I’ll have more time for taking walks and reading books. But think through the broader equilibrium. If more emails are read by bots, then more emails will be written by bots. Of course that is already the case, but in this new world the bot-composed emails will be at least as good as human emails, and at least as good at getting through whatever filters I set up to protect my time and attention.
A kind of arms race will ensue. Overall, I expect the number of quality messages and emails to rise. Woe unto those who do not have a very good filtering bot.
Imagine negotiating or discussing terms in such a world. I might receive a proposal from your bot. Is it a real, legally binding offer? Or is it simply a ruse to get me to reveal information about my negotiating strategy? In some cases bots might handle these problems smoothly and present both sides with a final
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