Sorry USA, $40 Billion Won’t Buy Chip Independence

tech.hindustantimes.com:

President Joe Biden is so proud of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.'s new facility that he went to Arizona to celebrate it. A $40 billion figure tends to attract heads of state and corporate chieftains, with the chip factories TSMC is building there being hailed as the largest foreign direct investment in US history. “Apple had to buy all the advanced chips from overseas,” Biden said at the plant outside Phoenix on Tuesday. “Now, they're going to bring more of their supply chain here at home. It could be a game changer.”

Unfortunately, Mr President, it won't be a game changer.

Everything announced by TSMC this week was in line with long-term plans for the site. The amount of land it acquired indicates six distinct chip fabs. The first was announced in May 2020 and scheduled to begin operations in 2024. A $12 billion figure was put on that first installment, which was a bit of a misnomer because it also included operational costs over nine years, not just the big-ticket capex number usually cited.

This week comes news of the second factory, which will start manufacturing in 2026, with the total budget now climbing to $40 billion. Expect announcements for third, fourth and maybe fifth plants in coming years.

Also keep an eye out for upgrades to the technology that will be deployed. Much was made of news that TSMC would manufacture at the 4 nanometer node (dubbed N4) in Arizona. At that time, 7nm was the most advanced available. A smaller metric means better technology, but thanks to Moore's Law, industry advancements occur rapidly. The company's timeline meant N4 would be available in Taiwan this year, two years before it would reach the US.

This week TSMC is lauding the fact that 3nm will hit Arizona in 2026,